التحليل الطبقى السببىCausal Layered Analysis (CLA) :منهجية جديدة للدراسات المستقبلية في التربية: المرتکزات الفکرية والإجراءات التطبيقية "دراسة تحليلية نقدية" Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): A New Methodology for Future Studies in Education: Intellectual Foundations and Applied Procedures: Critical Analysis Study

نوع المستند : بحوث فی مجال أصول التربیة والتربیة الإسلامیة

المؤلف

قسم أصول التربية، کلية التربية- جامعة عين شمس

المستخلص

استهدفت الدراسة، من خلال توظيف المنهج الوصفى وأسلوب التحليل الفلسفى، عرض وتحليل منهجية التحليل الطبقى السببىCausal Layered Analysis (CLA) التي طرحها عالم المستقبليات سهيل عناية الله Sohail Inayatullah،کنظرية ومنهجية کيفية جديدة ومدخل متعدد المستويات approachmultilevelللدراسات المستقبلية في مجال التربية، ويعدالتحليل الطبقى السببى أول نظرية ومنهجية وتقنية جديدة لإجراء البحوث والدراسات المستقبلية منذ ظهور إسلوب دلفي، منذ ما يقرب من أربعين عامًا تقريبًا لمقاربــة المستقبل، والتي اتسعت مجالات استخدامها في الدراسات المستقبلية خلال السنوات العشرة الماضية. وتوصلت الدراسة إلى أن منهجية التحليل الطبقى السببي تعد منهجية بالغة الأهمية لمجال التربية؛ حيث أنها کنظرية ومنهجية انطلقت من الفکر النقدى وفلسفة ما بعد البنيوية مع الاهتمام بفکر فوکو Foucault، وترى أن هناک مستويات مختلفة من الواقع وطرق المعرفة. وترتکز على الدمج التکاملى بين أساليب التعلم التجريبية، والتفسيرية، والنقدية، والواقعية. وکمنهجية لم يقتصر استخدامها على التنبؤ بالمستقبل فحسب، بل اتسعت لبناء مساحات مجاوزة لبناء مستقبلات بديلة. کذلک تجاوزت المنهجية أوجه القصور في مناهج وأساليب الاستشراف في مقارباتها المنهجية للمشکلات والظواهر المختلفة؛ والتي تمثلت في ضعف قدرة هذه الأساليب والمنهجيات على تفکيک الخطاباتDiscourses، والنظرة للعالم Worldview (المنظومة القيمية التي تشکل فهم الأفراد للعالم)، والأيديولوجياتideologies، والصور المجازية Metaphors، والتي تمثل مرتکزا فکريا وإجرائيا في منهجية التحليل السببى. کما ارتکزت المنهجية على التکامل والاندماج بين أساليب مختلفة، والجمع بين تقاليد بحثية متباينة، لتحقق التوازن بين وجهات النظر الداخلية المتعمقة، ووجهات النظر للعالم الخارجي، وهذا ما تفردت به المنهجية عن أساليب،ومنهجيات، وتقنيات الدراسات المستقبلية الأخرى التي اقتصرت على وجهات النظر الخارجية فقط. وترى الباحثة أن هذه الدراسة وما توصلت إليه من نتائج يمکن أن تثرى مجال الدراسات المستقبلية في التربية نظرا لحداثة الموضوع، ولاستکمال الفائدة أوصت الباحثة بإجراء المزيد من الدراسات.
By employing the descriptive approach and the method of philosophical analysis, the study aimed at presenting and analyzing the methodology of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) that developed by the futurist, Sohail Inayatullah, as a new theory and methodology and a multi-level approach to Future Studies in the field of Education. Causal Layered Analysis is considered to be the first new theory, methodology and technique for conducting Future Studies since the emergence of the Delphi method, nearly forty years ago. Causal Layered Analysis has been employed in various fields during the past ten years. The study concluded that the Causal Layered Analysis is a very important methodology for Future Studies in the field of Education, as it is a theory and methodology that is based on critical thought and post-structural philosophy with an interest in Foucault thought. Causal Layered Analysis focuses on the integrative integration of experiential, interpretative, critical and realistic learning styles. As a methodology, it is not used only to predict the future, but also to expand spaces to build alternative scenarios. In addition, the methodology also exceeded the limitations of Future Studies approaches and methods such as their weak ability of unpacking up discourses, worldview, ideologies, and metaphors which constitute the intellectual and procedural basis in the causal analysis methodology.          The methodology is also based on integration between different methods, and combining different research traditions to achieve a balance between in-depth internal views and perspectives of the external world, and this is what makes the methodology unique compared to other methods, and techniques of Future Studies that are limited toemploying external views only. The researcher believes that this study and its findings can enrich the field of Future Studies in Education due to its novelty. The researcher recommended conducting more studies according to the proposed procedural framework for employing the methodology.

الكلمات الرئيسية

الموضوعات الرئيسية

المراجع

1-     المراجعالعربیة-
سلوتر، أ. ریتشارد(2016).دراساتالمستقبلیة. إطارمفاهیمی. ترجمة خلود سعید. سلسلة أوراق العدد (21).  مکتبة الإسکندریة. وحدة الدراسات المستقبلیة.
الهرمزی، سیف (2016). مقترباتالقوةالذکیةالأمیرکیةکآلیةمنآلیاتالتغییرالدولی -الولایاتالمتحدةالأمریکیةأنموذجا.. المرکز العربى للأبحاث ودراسة السیاسات.
2-    المراجع العربية مترجمة:
Translation of the Arabic References
Slaughter, A. Richard (2016). Future studies. Conceptual framework. Translated by Kholoud Saeed. Issue Papers Series (21).  Alexandria Library. Future Studies Unit.
Al-Hormozi, S. (2016). American Intelligent Power Approaches as a Mechanism of International Change - The United States of America as a model. The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies.
3-     المراجعالأجنبیة
Adendorff, C.M., Kokkoris, T. and Botha, B. (2016). The Future of Sustainable Water Resource Development and Management in South Africa. Athens. ATINER'S Conference. Paper Series, No. FOS2016-1917.
Argov, Semina (2010). A National Security Doctrine for Israel, Argov Program in Leadership and Diplomacy. Lauder School of Government, IDC Herzliya.
Arnaldi, S. ).2008(.Framing Pragmatic Validity. Theoretical Reorientations of the Regio Futures. In Faces of the 21st Century. A. Gąsior-Niemiec, A. Kuklinski and W. lamentowicz (eds.). Poland. Oficyna Wydawnicza Rewasz, 108-121.
Ball, J. (2001). Environmental Future State Visioning. towards a visual and integrative approach to information management for environmental planning. Local Environment. 6(3)., 351–366.
Conway, M. (2015). Foresight. an introduction. A Thinking Futures Reference Guide. Retrieved 14 May 2018 from https.//static1.squarespace.com/static/580c492820099e7e75b9c3b4/t/58bcccee59cc68b969703f1e/1488768258680/TFRefGuideForesight1.pdf
Curry, A. (2007).Acting on the Future. In Scenarios for Success. Turning Insights into Action. B. Sharpe and K. Van der Heijden(ed.). John Wiley and Sons, 339-372.
De Simone, S.( 2004). ‘Causal Layered Analysis. A “cookbook” approach’, in Inayatullah, S. (2004). The causal layered analysis (CLA). reader. Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology. 485–494.
Derrida, J. (1976). Of Grammatology, Baltimore. Johns Hopkins University Press.
Foucault, Michel (2002). Archaeology of Knowledge. Routledge classics. London. Routledge.
Heinonen, S. et al. (2015). CLA Game Report. Causal Layered Analysis Game on Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios, 2nd ed. Turku. University of Turku, Turku School of Economics, Finland Futures Research Centre.
Heinonen, S., Vainikka, P. and Breyer, C.(2017). Transformational Energy Futures 2050. Neo-Carbon Energy Societal Scenarios .Turku. University of Turku, Turku School of Economics, Finland Futures Research Centre.
Inayatullah S (2004). Appendix. the causal layered analysis pyramid. In. Inayatullah, S. (ed). The causal layered analysis (CLA). reader. theory and case studies of an integrative and transformative methodology. Tamkang University Press, Tamsui.
Inayatullah, S. & Milojevic, I (eds.). (2015). CLA 2.0. Transformative Research in Theory and Practice, Tamsui. Tamkang University Press.
Inayatullah, S. (1990). Deconstructing and Reconstructing the Future. Predictive, Cultural and Critical Epistemologies. Futures, 22(2)., 115-141.
Inayatullah, S. (1998). Causal layered analysis. Poststructuralism as method. Futures. 30(8815–829.
Inayatullah, S. (2003a). Causal layered analysis. Unveiling and transforming the future. In Glenn & Gordon (Eds.). Futures research methodologies. New York. American Council for the UNU.
Inayatullah, S. (2003b). Teaching Futures Studies. From Strategy to Transformative Change. Journal of Futures Studies, 7(3)., 35-40.
Inayatullah, S. (2004a). Causal Layered Analysis. Theory, historical context, and case studies. In S. Inayatullah (Ed.). The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Reader. Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology (pp. 1−52). Tamsui. Tamkang University Press.
Inayatullah, S. (2005). Causal Layered Analysis - Deepening the Future. In Questioning the future. Methods and Tools for Organizational and Societal Transformation, Tamkang University Press.
Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars. Futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1)., 4−21.
Inayatullah, S. (2009). Causal Layered Analysis. An Integrative and Transformative Theory and Method, in. Jerome Glenn and Theodore Gordon, Futures Research Methodology,Version 3.0., The Millennium Project, Washington D.C.
Inayatullah, S. (2015a). The Continued Evolution of the Use of CLA. Using practice to transform in S. Inayatullah & I. Milojevic (eds.). CLA 2.0. Transformative research in theory and practice (pp. 13–21). Tamkang University Press.
Inayatullah, S. (2015b). What Works. Case Studies in the Practice of Foresight. Tamsui. Tamkang University Press.
Inayatullah, S. (2017)., Prospective and Strategic Foresight Toolbox, Causal Layered Analysis. Paris. Retrieved 42 March 2018 from https.//www.futuribles.com/en/group/prospective-and-strategic-foresight-toolbox/document/causal-layered-analysis/
Inayatullah, S.(1993). From Who am I to When am I? Framing the Time and Shape of the Future. Futures, 25(3)., 235–253.
Inayatullah, S.(2002). Questioning the Future. Methods and Tools for Organizational and Societal Transfomation, Taiwan. Tamkang University. 
 Inayatullah, Sohail (2004b). Appendix. The causal layered analysis pyramid. In S. Inayatullah (Ed.). The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Reader. Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology (p. 543). Tamsui. Tamkang University Press.
Kotze, H.A. (2009). Causal layered analysis enriching the innovation process. Master of Philosophy. Stellenbosch. University of Stellenbosch.
Kuusi O., Lauhakangas O., Ruttas-Küttim R.( 2016). From metaphoric litany text to scenarios - How to use metaphors in futures studies. Futures. 84, 124-132. Retrieved 9 May 2018 from http.//dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.03.014.
MacGill, V.(2015). Unravelling the Myth/Metaphor Layer in Causal Layered Analysis. Journal of Futures Studies. 20(1)., 55-68
Mehrolhassani MH, Haghdoost A, Dehnavieh R, Pourhosseini SS.(2019). .Comprehensive conceptual framework for futures studies in health. Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran (MJIRI). 3(131)., 1-4.
Milojevi, I., Inayatullah, S. (2015). Narrative foresight. Futures 73, 151–162
Minkkinen, Matti (2013). Images of the future of privacy. A privacy dynamics framework and a causal layered analysis of ideal types. Master’s thesis in Futures Studies. University of Turku, Turku School of Economics. Retrieved 7 May 2018 from http.//urn.fi/URN.NBN.fi-fe2014091644724
Ono, R. (2003). Helping Students Realize their Full Potentials. Teaching Futures Studies in Singapore and Japan. Journal of Futures Studies. (7). 3, 41-50.
Palmer, J. & N. Ellis (2008). A layered approach to horizon scanning. Identifying future issues in military and veterans’ health. Journal of Futures Studies. 12(4)., 77-92.
Pederson, H. (2004). Schools, Speciesism, and Hidden Curricula. The Role of Critical Pedagogy for Humane Education Futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 8(4)., 1-14.
Ramos, J. M. (2002(. Transcendence of a method. the story of causal layered analysis. Retrieved 7 May 2018 from http.//www.metafuture.org/cla%20papers/Ramos,%20Transcendence%20of%20a%20method%20-%20the%20story%20of%20causal%20layere%20analysis.pdf
Ramos, J. M. (2015). Transcendence of a method. The story of causal layered analysis. In Sohail Inayatullah & Ivana Milojević, eds., CLA 2.0. Transformative Research in Theory and Practice. Tamsui. Tamkang University Press.
Reidy, C. (2008). An Integral extension of causal layered analysis. Futures, 40, 150-159.
 Riedy, C. (2013). Terraforming ourselves. a causal layered analysis of interior transformation. In Proceedings International conference Transformation in a Changing Climate. 19–21 June, Oslo. 2013.
Russo, C. (2003). The CLA questioning methodology. Journal of Futures Studies. 7(4)., 73-82.
Schoeman, F. D. (1992). Privacy and Social Freedom. Cambridge. Cambridge University Press.
Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view. paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company. Currency.
Slaughter, R. (2001). Knowledge creation, futures methodologies and the integral agenda. Foresight. 3(5)., 407-418.
Slaughter, R. (2002). Beyond the mundane. Reconciling breadth and depth in futures enquiry. Futures. 34 (6)., 493-507.
Slaughter, R. (2004b). Futures Beyond Dystopia. Creating Social Foresight. London and New York. Routledge Falmer.
Slaughter, R. A. (1996). The knowledge base of futures studies as an evolving process. Futures, 28(9)., 799-812.
Slaughter, R. A. (1997). Developing and applying strategic foresight. ABN Report, 5(10)., 13-27.
Slaughter, R. A. (1999). A new framework for environmental scanning. Foresight.. 1(5)., 387-397.
Slaughter, R. A., & Futures Study Centre. (1991). Futures concepts and powerful ideas. Futures Study Centre.
Slaughter, R. (2004a). Beyond the Mundane. Reconciling Breadth and Depth in Futures Enquiry. In S. Inayatullah (Ed.). The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Reader. Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology (pp. 147–161). Tamsui. Tamkang University Press.
Terranova, D. (2004). Fathoming the Ageing Workforce Debate. Causal Layered Analysis in Action. Journal of Futures Studies. 9 (2)., 37-42.
Terranova, D. (2008). Navigating by the Stars. Using Futures Methodologies to Create a Preferred Vision for the Workforce, a Case Study. Journal of Futures Studies. 12(3)., 31–44.
Turnbull, D. (2010). Rethinking moral futures, Futures, 42(2)., 149-153.
Van der Heijden, K. (2011). Scenarios. the art of strategic conversation. John Wiley & Sons.
Voros, J. (2005). A Generalised 'Layered Methodology' Framework. Foresight .7(2)., 28–40.
Wildman, P., Inayatullah, S. (1997).  Ways of knowing, culture, communication and the pedagogies of the future. Futures, 28(8)., 723–741.
Wright, D. L. (1999). Ashibetsu City's Revitalization Strategy in Post-bubble Japan. A multi-layered poststructual analysis of Futures images. Queensland University of Technology. MA Thesis.
Wright, D. L. (2002). Applying Foucault to a future-oriented layered analysis in a post bubble Japanese community. Futures, 34(6)., 523–534.
Index (1). A list of some studies and research that used the causal stratification analysis methodology
Ariell, A. (2010). Forest futures. A causal layered analysis. Journal of Futures Studies. 14(4)., 49 - 64.
Barber, M. (2007). A drop in the ocean for foresight practitioners. What the future may hold for fresh water usage and availability throughout the globe. Journal of Futures Studies.11 (3)., 61 - 78.
Barber, M. (2010). Solving the futures challenge –
all you need is a 3LA. Futures, 42, 170-173. 
Bishop, B. J., Dzidic, P. L., & Breen, L. J. (2013). Multiple level Analysis as a Tool for Policy. An Example of the Use of Contextualism and Causal Layered Analysis. Global Journal of Community Psychology Practice, 4(2).,1–13.
Fan, Gilbert. (2010). The future of a professional association. A causal layered perspective. (Professional Doctorate). CQ University Australia. Australia.
Fan,G., Khng, J. N. W. (2014).Using Causal Layered Analysis to Understand the Alliance between Social Workers with Their Professional Association.Journal of Futures Studies.18(4)., 59-76.
Gidley, J., Bateman D., & Smith, C. (2004). Futures in Education. Principles, Practice and Potential. AFI Monograph 5. Swinburne. Melbourne.
Gomes, J. F. (2015). Futures business models of an Internet of Things (IoT). enabled Healthcare sector (Doctoral dissertation, Master’s Thesis, Department of Management & International Business, Autumn 2015, University of Oulu).
Head,S.(2012). Forward Theatre and Causal Layered Analysis. Journal of Futures Studies. 17(1)., 41-56
Hoffman,J.(2012).Unpacking Images of China Using Causal.Journal of Futures Studies. 16(3)., 1-24.
Layered Analysis
Inayatullah, S. (2010). Multiple narratives of the futures of the global financial crisis. Journal of Futures Studies, 14, 109-128.
Kiviluoto, K.(2017). The Layered Reality of Sustainable Transport Campaigning. Master´s Thesis. University of Turku. Turku School of Economics.
Lederwasch, A.et al. (2011). A Vision for Mining and Minerals. Applying Causal Layered Analysis and Art . Journal of Futures Studies.15 (4)., 203 – 224. 
Rhemann, M. (2019).Asymmetry, Disruption, Futures. A Depth and Layered Approach to Understanding the Futures of Change. PhD dissertation.University of the Sunshine Coast.
Sheraz, U., Farooqi, M.N. (2014).Demystifying the Hawala System Using Causal Layered Analysis.Journal of Futures Studies. 19(1)., 1-12.
Turnbull, D. (2006). Causal layered analysis as pedagogy in studies of science and technology. Journal of Futures Studies, 10, 49-62.
التربية (الأزهر): مجلة علمية محکمة للبحوث التربوية والنفسية والاجتماعية)
المجلد 38، 184ج3
أكتوبر 2019
الصفحة 629-700

ملفات

شارك

إرسال الاستشهاد إلى

الإحصائيات